Present crisis in Pakistan

The background to the present crisis in Pakistan is related to Gen. Musharraf’s accession to power and the phenomenon of the mutually reinforcing link between the Pakistan Army and the groups promoting Islamist jihad. The Pakistan Amy had confined Islamist jihadi groups to acting in its interest in Afghanistan. The mutually reinforcing links between the Pakistan Army and the Muslim jihadi groups primarily meant for Afghanistan and India has led to a mutually reinforcing link between Muslim jihadi groups worldwide.
This did not end with Musharraf coming to power. In 2002, he in fact, rigged the elections in a way that the Islamic parties came to power in Balochistan and NWFP. When the Northern Alliance took Kabul, elements of the Taliban under the leadership of Mullah Dadullah escaped into the NWFP. The mostly Kandahar-based Taliban leadership largely crossed from Chaman into Pakistan. Pakistani cooperation with the Americans in their fight against the Al Qaeda was selectively confined to providing second string leadership to the Americans and until the end of 2006, not a single Taliban leader was killed or captured.
The Pashtun element figured for the first time in the history of the Pakistan Army when Pashtun officers refusal to fight in the NWFP and eventually faced court martial. Musharraf also lost the support of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The duality of Musharraf’s policy is that when the Army refused to fight he was forced to strike a deal with the Taliban. And today in the NWFP, at least 6 districts are totally Talibanized. This has spread across from Naoshera to Islamabad resulting in the Lal Masjid phenomenon. Under the constitution, Musharraf has to go in for elections this year. The deadline of the Assembly Elections and his term as Army Chief both expire in December.
On 9 March 2007, the Chief Justice was removed from his post. He was proving an embarrassment to the Army for accepting hundreds of human rights cases for consideration. But, the result of sacking the Chief Justice was the worm on which the judiciary turned. The doctrine of necessity by which every coup was justified was pushed aside. This unnerved the armed forces establishment and Musharraf himself. Rather than allowing it to go through, he clamped down from the top. There was total rage when the Army sat aside when Pashtuns were killed by the Mohajirs in Karachi. For the first time, Musharraf’s Mohajir identity became a factor and the Chief Justice became a hero in the Punjab. On 1 June 2007, a Corps Commanders Meeting was held that issued a statement that spoke of - "the malicious campaigns launched against the mechanism of the state by vested interests". The last time such a meeting had issued such a statement was in 1977 prior to Gen. Zia-ul-Haq’s coup.
What are the options for the General? Can he go for elections and get elected by the current assembly? He cannot go to elections without a deal with Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and without the support of the Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam) (PML-Q). Can he crack down militarily with martial law? Things in the Punjab have gone too far and public opinion has risen making it hard for the Army to be called in. While the Army will stand by Musharraf in Sindh and Balochistan, in Punjab, the Mohajir image will stick and the Army will not be a part of this.
Gen. Musharraf’s credibility has come into question and even if Bhutto and the others come to power in a coalition with him, it will be an uneasy alliance. In this scenario, when it comes to nuclear policy, the India policy and the Afghanistan policy, the Army is going to call the shots. There is increasing American and NATO frustration in dealing with the revived Taliban and this is going to result in more and more attacks by the Americans across the Durand Line, thus complicating the Pak-Afghan relationship.
The Iran factor is an imponderable. The Iranians allege that Afghanistan is also being used against them. Pakistan’s diplomatic options are narrowing. For India, this means that "the best bet" theories do not work. Our relations with Pakistan will be determined by objective realities within Pakistan and Pakistan’s geopolitical situation. If Gen. Musharraf has come forward with new proposals on Kashmir, India must keep talking, so that we are not dragged into the internal politics of Pakistan. We must avoid "the best bet" syndrome and deal with them as we deal with any other neighbor because the military buildup of Pakistan is continuing with Chinese help.

Political history of Pakistan

The National Assembly will be dissolved in case President General Pervez Musharraf is declared ineligible for the election that he contested and won on Saturday. This could also pave the way for some extraordinary steps to cope with the situation. The Presidency is hopeful that system will not be disturbed and the country will enter the next phase for a smooth transition towards a complete democratic order without much ado.
The political scene is heading towards major reshuffles with the emergence of new alliances and the breaking up of existing groupings. President General Pervez Musharraf will assume a more neutral stance towards the political forces as he is committed to work with ‘new faces’.
Political pundits told The News on Sunday that President Musharraf would like to emerge as an apolitical head of the state in the countdown to the next general elections. He will attempt to ensure peaceful political co-existence between the Shujaat Muslim League and Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party. Benazir Bhutto has already expressed confidence in working with President Pervez Musharraf. The caretaker set-up that would be installed with the announcement of the schedule for the general elections would be put in place after close consultations with major political stakeholders including Benazir Bhutto. The presidential camp has already entered into initial discussions on the subject with various political groups. Former Chief of the Army Staff General Jehangir Karamat who was tipped as the caretaker prime minister before the general elections has categorically brushed aside the impression that he will be available for the job. Talking to The News from Lahore he said, "I do not have such an assignment in mind. Let me enjoy my horse riding and my retired life". The general who opted to resign from the ambassadorship in Washington early last year is engaged in studying extensively.
The sources revealed that the government is also in touch with the authorities in Saudi Arabia and as soon as an understanding develops on the question of the return of the Sharif family to Pakistan, diplomatic channels would be activated for the purpose. The Saudi rulers have no objection if the Sharif family returns to Pakistan in harmony with the administration in Islamabad. The custodian of the two Holy Mosques and Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz has asked the authorities concerned to take complete care of former Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif during his stay on the holy soil. Mian Nawaz Sharif is soon being given more space for political movement and the authorities are going to speed up the process for facilitation of his return to Pakistan. It is widely believed that the presidential election was the main hurdle in the way of the return of Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan. With the completion of the election, interlocutors of the sides concerned would again be in contact in a couple of days.
It is understood that the Saudi authorities would not tolerate a situation where Benazir Bhutto has a free hand in electioneering while Nawaz Sharif faces hardships in exile. They have been pleading for the provision of a level playing field for the two, and Riyadh would not like to be instrumental in any ‘unfairness’ to the Sharifs. The Royal Saudi family has throughout been asking the leaders in Pakistan to work for stability in their country and for the purpose they have always extended their hand of cooperation, the sources added.
The political observers are terming Shujaat League’s jubilation about the adverse signals on account of ‘reconciliation’ in the ranks of the PPP as misplaced. They are of the view that the PPP would be the first priority of General Pervez Musharraf when the chips are down. The preferential treatment given to the components of the incumbent ruling alliance would not be available to them in the months to come. They have enjoyed ‘patronage’ for a fairly long period of time and had got enough out of it.
Observers are of the view that the PPP would feel comfortable in bringing the Muttahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM), the Patriots of Rao Sikandar Iqbal, PPP of Sherpao, Hamid Nasir Chattha’s Muslim League (Junejo) and the Jamiatul Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) of Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman on board while the Jamaat-e-Islami and nationalist groups would side with the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). The Shujaat Muslim League will be having Sardar Farooq Leghari’s Millat Party, Ejaz-ul-Haq’s Muslim League (Zia), Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim and some groups from Balochistan with it in the next general elections. It would be premature to make an ultimate assessment about Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz as to how he would be adjusted in the fresh grouping that is almost certain now. The sources said that the Muttahidda Majli-e-Amal (MMA) that has developed serious rifts in its ranks is bound to disintegrate in the wake of recent happening.
Maulana Fazl is eyeing the office of prime minister. He does not ‘qualify’ for the slot as long he is on the right side of Qazi Hussain Ahmad and the Jamaat-e-Islami. The differences on dissolution of the NWFP Assembly and resignation are a mere smokescreen. The Maulana would finally be adjusted to a position from where he could be conveniently shifted to the highest office of the chief executive of the country. The Maulana’s illusions are not out of place. In the meanwhile dissolution of the NWFP provincial assembly has also been deferred, the observers believed.